The Reality of a Political Solution in Syria: Serious messages must be sent through the Security Council – By Walid al-Bunni for The Syrian Observer
The insistence of the security and economic mafia surrounding the tyrant not to respond to any legitimate demands raised by peaceful demonstrators, and after more than 5,000 peaceful demonstrators were killed, hundreds of thousands were arrested and tortured, turned the peaceful revolution into an armed uprising that has opened the gates of hell in Syria on its homeland and people.
The need to arm drove the opposition to the accepting of all the terms of nations that were capable of submission, or able to provide the money needed to buy them. For that reason, the opposition’s decision-making ability was completely confiscated with the establishment of the Syrian National Council, sponsored by regional and international powers which some Syrians relied on for friendship and support to deal with the brutal mafia ruling in Syria and to achieve the goals of the revolution.
That ended with the Syrian National Coalition which has failed miserably in persuading Syrians that it is a good alternative for the current system despite its corruption and tyranny.
The regime meanwhile, faced with heavy losses and consecutive splits, was forced to ask the help of the Iranians with money and militants in Lebanon, Iraq, likewise was no longer the master of his decisions either. And so the decisions as to war or peace in Syria are no longer Syrian but subject to the will of international and regional powers.
With the latest developments in Iraq and that enabled the Isalmic State to control large areas outside of the control of the government, it has become impossible to announce any truce or negotiations without taking into consideration ISIS. The Islamic Front and their allies are the largest and most influential forces facing the regime, the militia Hezbollah and the Iraqi and Iranian militias, and have the strength and the backing of the moderate opposition institutions imposed by regional and international powers, as the representative of the Syrian people and their revolution. But their ability to impose any obligation for a truce or ceasefire as a start for any political solution is non-existent in these circumstances.
Unil we can talk about political solutions we must change the balance of power, and as these organizations such as the Nusra Front and IS are of the type that have only the zero-sum solutions (to martyrdom or victory), we either have to admit their right to bring us back to the Middle Ages and darkness or they will fight us all, without differentiating between the mafia state or anyone else who does not swear allegiance to their calip.
Therefore, the efforts of those who really wants to stop the crimes against humanity being committed in Syria and throughout all the region, either by the system or these organizations, must pressure the regime’s mafia, and in a way that is more serious than just numbered days and empty red lines. Serious messages must be sent through the Security Council to push them to believe that the continuation of the war against the Syrian people will end with the same fate of Gaddhafi or Milosevic, and force it to accept a political solution to end the control over the Syrian people and allow the Syrians, with an Arabic and international support, to unite to face the risk posed by these organizations which threatens the fate of the entire region.
Without the above, I do not think that the mafia truling Syria is ready to accept any solution in the current circumstances.
A real political solutions need a regional and international cooperation to push the regime to accept it, otherwise the sectarian polarization will continue to provide fertile ground for the growth and radical ideology of Al-Qaeda and IS, which I’m afraid might suit the interests of some regional and international powers. Some countires, believe that if you let the bad guys fight each other until they are exhausted each other, it would not harm Israel, for example, not would allowing Hezbollah and Iran to become depleted through the exploitation of their sectarian nature. Only we Syrians will be the losers.
So the Syrians who are aware of the magnitude of the disaster, regardless of their national or religious or ideological or political position, and knowing the road is still long, focus on the restoration of the national incubator for the idea of free consolidated multi-party democracy in Syria. This would pull the rug out from under the parties to this devastating conflict and help reduce the size of public base who are willing to die for this or that party.
It may not be the ideal or quick solution, but it will be the only useful work for the Syrians united for the homeland seeking life.
date : 14/08/2014